Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 194.121505 231.706056 276.919638 336.026822 412.321493 508.983705 6.431909e+02
2025-09-07 157.276366 204.885000 269.271844 365.423622 510.368935 729.699869 1.106162e+03
2025-09-14 129.579807 178.828845 250.918621 369.233020 569.598148 919.112973 1.640631e+03
2025-09-21 113.051556 163.307528 241.716212 380.972838 642.044276 1161.341195 2.449864e+03
2025-09-28 98.521436 147.328110 227.303771 378.511161 686.704893 1373.313577 3.394451e+03
2025-10-05 92.828442 144.019892 232.460613 411.679365 813.800213 1841.111390 5.623148e+03
2025-10-12 87.153754 139.547551 234.320341 438.628626 939.680092 2402.898296 9.251096e+03
2025-10-19 81.496311 134.062193 233.009019 458.365357 1058.089931 3051.502205 1.511281e+04
2025-10-26 75.881816 127.733210 228.739759 470.180177 1162.147520 3764.400851 2.443732e+04
2025-11-02 70.288246 120.620871 221.551533 473.061945 1242.768240 4488.625859 3.867313e+04
2025-11-09 64.329647 112.028629 209.828544 461.567637 1273.354689 5038.564414 5.650238e+04
2025-11-16 59.150272 104.370260 198.960204 449.734623 1298.704104 5614.926692 8.359739e+04
2025-11-23 54.288925 97.006272 188.101507 436.674319 1319.906107 6256.596849 1.294537e+05
2025-11-30 53.364426 97.621425 195.487552 477.683845 1580.601709 9091.546050 4.394965e+05
2025-12-07 50.391204 93.551494 191.209739 483.004291 1698.053731 11220.259779 1.212857e+06
2025-12-14 48.296231 91.123361 190.517010 499.584665 1884.050186 14769.703634 6.528299e+06
2025-12-21 45.444275 86.713435 184.209772 496.100015 1969.583410 17634.574688 4.641193e+07
2025-12-28 45.024879 87.697033 191.858754 543.217755 2382.521485 28188.001433 NaN
2026-01-04 44.157343 87.544847 196.509594 581.794355 2799.104131 44174.041072 NaN
2026-01-11 42.920703 86.381619 198.218775 610.207182 3192.665907 67364.604866 NaN
2026-01-18 41.383825 84.332233 197.116810 627.279010 3532.782098 98883.615784 NaN
2026-01-25 39.580271 81.453045 193.197503 631.450109 3779.762467 136827.931462 NaN
2026-02-01 37.350794 77.323692 185.047714 614.829677 3823.726872 164709.522804 NaN